Research Mentor(s): Andrew Gronewold, Associate Professor
Research Mentor School/College/Department: School for Environment and Sustainability,
Presentation Date: Thursday, April 22, 2021
Session: Session 2 (11am – 11:50am)
Breakout Room: Room 15
We updated statistical models that model the onset and extent of ice cover along and around the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore(or APIS) – a US National Park that is famous for its picturesque rock formations in winter and accessed by foot. Over the past 50 years, climate has changed dramatically, leading to extreme variability in when and if Great Lakes freeze to a safe amount. We modeled when ice cover reached a specified extent, and if ice cover would reach that specified extent in a certain year. This project models ice cover extent using survival and beta regression models using teleconnections and historical daily ice cover data dating back to 1973. Analysis of results shows a significant increase in ice cover variability after the 1990s. The model accommodates for this change, and can be split into two different models.