Anna Gossard
Pronouns: she/her
Research Mentor(s): Andrew Gronewold
Co-Presenter:
Research Mentor School/College/Department: School for Environment and Sustainability / SNRE
Presentation Date: April 20
Presentation Type: Poster
Session: Session 2 – 11am – 11:50am
Room: League Ballroom
Authors: Anna Gossard, Andrew Gronewold
Presenter: 46
Abstract
The Great Lakes account for 20% of the world’s surface drinking water. Water level variability is an increasingly pressing issue due to climate change, so understanding the Great Lakes Water Balance is necessary to implement effective policies and modeling methods.The Great Lakes are managed by both the United States and Canada, and the Great Lakes Water Balance is used to distribute and allocate water resources to over 40 million people accordingly. The Great Lakes Water Balance is a method of quantifying the components of the hydrological systems of the Great Lakes. It combines precipitation, evaporation, runoff, diversions and connecting channels into a comprehensive model that calculates the water level based on these components. As of right now, there is no incorporation of thermal expansion in the Great Lakes Water Balance. The purpose of this project is to analyze the effects of thermal expansion on the Great Lakes Water Balance and determine whether or not thermal expansion is significant enough to be included in the Great Lakes Water Balance model. By including the effects of variable water temperatures, you can increase the precision and accuracy of the Great Lakes Water Balance. I was able to calculate the change in water level due to thermal expansion by using a basic mathematical model for thermal expansion (Georgia State University) and surface water temperature data from the Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA). Stratification and the temperature gradient at different depths is also incorporated. By assuming that the thermocline for fresh bodies of water occurs at 100ft, we overestimate the effects of thermal expansion on the Great Lakes Water Balance. The change in volume and water level for each day is calculated and plotted graphically via MATLAB. Through sensitivity analysis, we conclude that the effects of thermal expansion are negligible and should not be considered in the Great Lakes Water Balance. The maximum net increase in water level is 0.0004m, achieved by Lake Ontario in late May 2020. This is only a 1.64*10^-6% increase, and therefore has an insignificant effect regarding Great Lakes water levels.
Engineering
