Jared Tuatini
Research Mentor(s): Michael Mignano
Mentor Department: Movement Science
Authors: Jared Tuatini, Michael Mignano
Session: Session 5 (2:00pm – 2:50pm)
Presentation Type: Poster 57
Abstract
The coaching carousel that is NCAA college football is an integral part of the sport in its entirety. At the end of each season, a multitude of coaches switch positions for any number of reasons. The goal of this research study was to analyze, over 25 years, every single head coaching change made at the 134 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) colleges. In addition, further research was conducted with a narrower lens, focusing on the 2024 college football playoff (CFP) selections, comparing the top 25 AP poll teams to their performance against common sports betting lines. The goal of this lens was to quantify the selection of playoff teams and analyze the metrics used to make these decisions. To achieve these goals, two large datasets were constructed. One with a whole holistic summary of the 134 FBS teams and their coaching changes over the years, the other with an analytic cross-referencing between CFP teams and their performance against betting spreads for the duration of the 2024 season. Through specific statistical analysis of CFP teams versus their betting spreads, one could conclude that certain aspects of performance versus spreads were more important for teams that made the CFP versus those that fell short. These conclusions are relevant as competing for the CFP is extremely selective resulting in a magnitude of controversy. This study provides a quantitative method of defining which teams are selected, helping either eliminate controversy or inform teams about important performance aspects needed to compete for a place within the CFP.
