Yide Hao
Research Mentor(s): James Boyko
Mentor Department: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Authors: Yide Hao, James Boyko
Session: Session 3 (11:00am – 11:50am)
Presentation Type: Poster 52
Abstract
How do we accurately reconstruct evolutionary history without overcomplicating our tools? This project compares two approaches for predicting ancestral traits in species: a simple method that tracks how traits change over time, and a complex method that also considers how traits influence species survival. Using simulated evolutionary scenarios—where traits changed moderately, rarely, or dramatically impacted survival—we tested both approaches across evolutionary “family trees.” We measured not only how often each method guessed correctly but also how reliable their confidence levels were. The simpler method matched the complex one in accuracy across most scenarios, excelling even when traits changed rapidly. However, the complex method proved critical only when survival strongly depended on traits. Researchers can save time and resources by opting for simpler tools in most cases, reserving complex models for scenarios where survival-trait links are well-established.
