Peiyao Sun
Research Mentor: Alexander Gazmararian
Mentor Department: Political Science, ISR, LSA
Author(s): Alexander Gazmararian , Peiyao Sun
Session: Session 6 (3:00 PM – 3:50 PM)
Presentation Type: Poster 52
Abstract
Climate change is a long-run shift in climate patterns that manifests through short-run weather fluctuations and extreme events that vary across locations and time. This project investigates how exposure to climate-related conditions and extreme events shapes beliefs about global warming and correlated political behaviors, including public opinion, policy support, and, in some studies, electoral outcomes. We conduct a large-scale data collection and replication effort, drawing on published research in climate and environmental politics—such as work linking wildfire exposure to voting behavior and studies on climate attitudes and policy preferences. A core goal is to learn about causal relationships rather than simple correlations. Using existing replication materials and newly assembled datasets, we apply a common statistical framework across studies to estimate how climate-related experiences affect political attitudes and behavior, and to make results comparable across settings. We reproduce key findings and evaluate their robustness under alternative specifications, including adjustments for spatial dependence (i.e., the fact that nearby locations may share similar shocks and political trends). Beyond replication, we synthesize results across studies to test new hypotheses about when and for whom climate change experiences translate into more pro-environmental beliefs and political action—for example, whether salient disasters generate larger belief updates than gradual changes, and whether effects differ by baseline partisanship or local economic conditions. Overall, this project aims to clarify whether and under what conditions climate-related experiences shift public opinion and political outcomes in a more climate-responsive direction.
